lpga projections
resolve lpga
forward-only tournament projections from the L04 forward model + L06 Monte Carlo — per-round strokes-gained, finishing distribution, cut and finishing probabilities. this week's field and the rest of the slate below.
the ways in
how the model has held up, across the site
85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus
RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)
54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market
These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.
what has changed
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
L04 forward model fits a per-player round-mean from 5+ years of LPGA round data. L06 Monte Carlo simulates 10,000 4-round tournaments using that player-mean plus a 2.85-stroke per-round residual (RMSE on the L04 test set). Cut is top 65 + ties after round 2.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.