lpga projections

resolve lpga — the standard portland classic

forward-only tournament projections from the L04 forward model + L06 Monte Carlo — per-round strokes-gained, finishing distribution, cut and finishing probabilities. this week's field and the rest of the slate below.

sections

this week next week all previous tournaments advanced resolve metrics

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

L04 forward model fits a per-player round-mean from 5+ years of LPGA round data. L06 Monte Carlo simulates 10,000 4-round tournaments using that player-mean plus a 2.85-stroke per-round residual (RMSE on the L04 test set). Cut is top 65 + ties after round 2.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.

how the projections have held up

85%

of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly

29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171

World Cup ranked-probability score

tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%

hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls

beat the closing market